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Sunday, May 31, 2009
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Free email Blog
Free email blog
Thank you for all of your emails and suggestions.
If you would like to receive information by email rather than via this blog please write me at chuffy@layback4fun.com
The Open Festival was a great success and a profit was bagged on each day.
Thank you for all of your emails and suggestions.
If you would like to receive information by email rather than via this blog please write me at chuffy@layback4fun.com
The Open Festival was a great success and a profit was bagged on each day.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Sumo Nicholls wins by a splat
12th November 2008
It may have been a good day for my betting bank but as a whole the selections went down suffering from a Nicholls and Walsh flattener.
The down pour over the last few days had really softened up the ground and past experience had made Sedgefield a bit of a no go area in such circumstances. How I wished I had thought different after the event when I looked at some of the low priced favourites going AWOL there yesterday.
The filter came up with 5 selections for possible lays. 2 of them were going to go immediately on the Wealth Warning list due to their Nicholls trained credentials.
The day began with MEWSTONE in the 1:00 at Lingfield. As per usual I waited until 5 to 10 minutes before the off and it soon became apparent that there was a lot of interest in this selection from the backers. The price crashed in with heavy volume and I walked away.
The result was that MEWSTONE won by a good 14 lengths.
Next up was DILLAY BROOK in the 1:30. I put in at 2.5 and it was eventually matched and then drifted out to around the 2.7 level.
The race was a 3m Novices Handicap Chase around the sodden all weather track.
The winner WILLY THE SLIP was at the rear and wasn’t exactly having the best of races but fought his way through to win by over 6 lengths from DILLAY BROOK.
On a pretty awful day, it was good to be out and sorted.
JUNIOR drifted and flip-flopped in the opener at Exeter. It was Ruby on INCHIDALY ROCK who put the mockers on JUNIOR as the Nicholls bandwagon began its roll.
CHARITY LANE was so well backed, laying was for the brave. It did win but by only just over 2 lengths.
Ruby on NEVADA ROYALE went the same way but by a larger margin.
The results in full were:
1:00 Lingfield MEWSTONE Won
1:30 Lingfield DILLAY BROOK Lost
1:40 Exeter JUNIOR Lost
2:00 Lingfield CHARITY LANE Won
2:40 Exeter NEVADA ROYALE Won
I was lucky by ducking the first, doing the second and running for the hills.
To do them all would have made a loss, not a massive one because of the daft prices, but still a loss.
Price Movements
I used to do all my laying first thing in the morning. I would pick out what I thought would come a cropper the night before and then lay them at breakfast time.
I used to find it very frustrating that just minutes before a race that the price would come in dramatically before the off and the horse would win. By the same token I would pat myself on the back when I saw a price drift just as fast with the result being that the horse usually lost.
I thought I had discovered something and set about analysing the data on such events happening.
It didn’t have the effect on my performance that I hoped it would but thought the knowledge would come in useful one day.
In the distant past I use to see the way prices moved at the racecourse and it usually meant that something was afoot but I could never take advantage of it. As a normal punter I was never in a position to react fast enough to what was going on.
Being an armchair layer I now enjoy the benefits that holding fire when the market is telling us something.
Now I use the warning signal that is a crashing price more and more nowadays. The volume of the backing is the key and whether the layers come out to take on the interest.
Races that barely register can move up and down the odds with gay abandon with nothing really significant to be gleaned from it. However when you have a reasonably busy market and the prices start rapidly shifting you can be sure that there is something behind it.
Traders can distort this effect as they close positions but chances are the prices the bookies are quoting will be reflecting something like the exchanges are showing.
It may stop me from profiting from a very low priced favourite losing but more often than not it stops me laying a selection that has an even greater chance of winning than previously thought.
So to sum up I don’t lay too far in advance and I am very wary of price changes that occur in the moments before a race., especially prices coming in rapidly.
It is better to sit it out and be wrong than to go for it and find the decision was seriously wrong.
Common sense I know but when faced with a tempting price it oh so easy to go for the lay. I have done it on more than one occasion and lost.
Final Posting.
Today’s Diary is the final posting.
The reasons for ending this blog are more to do with my failure to achieve what I set out to do rather than a reaction to some of the fruity criticism that has been posted or mailed.
The idea for this blog wasn’t mine and initially I wasn’t really keen but after conversations with other layers I thought it could be helpful and possibly mildly entertaining.
I don’t think I really got there but hopefully some readers came away either slightly amused or dare I say a bit less worried about taking on the short priced favourites.
It has been good fun doing this and I don’t regret any of it.
Good luck to all of you.
It may have been a good day for my betting bank but as a whole the selections went down suffering from a Nicholls and Walsh flattener.
The down pour over the last few days had really softened up the ground and past experience had made Sedgefield a bit of a no go area in such circumstances. How I wished I had thought different after the event when I looked at some of the low priced favourites going AWOL there yesterday.
The filter came up with 5 selections for possible lays. 2 of them were going to go immediately on the Wealth Warning list due to their Nicholls trained credentials.
The day began with MEWSTONE in the 1:00 at Lingfield. As per usual I waited until 5 to 10 minutes before the off and it soon became apparent that there was a lot of interest in this selection from the backers. The price crashed in with heavy volume and I walked away.
The result was that MEWSTONE won by a good 14 lengths.
Next up was DILLAY BROOK in the 1:30. I put in at 2.5 and it was eventually matched and then drifted out to around the 2.7 level.
The race was a 3m Novices Handicap Chase around the sodden all weather track.
The winner WILLY THE SLIP was at the rear and wasn’t exactly having the best of races but fought his way through to win by over 6 lengths from DILLAY BROOK.
On a pretty awful day, it was good to be out and sorted.
JUNIOR drifted and flip-flopped in the opener at Exeter. It was Ruby on INCHIDALY ROCK who put the mockers on JUNIOR as the Nicholls bandwagon began its roll.
CHARITY LANE was so well backed, laying was for the brave. It did win but by only just over 2 lengths.
Ruby on NEVADA ROYALE went the same way but by a larger margin.
The results in full were:
1:00 Lingfield MEWSTONE Won
1:30 Lingfield DILLAY BROOK Lost
1:40 Exeter JUNIOR Lost
2:00 Lingfield CHARITY LANE Won
2:40 Exeter NEVADA ROYALE Won
I was lucky by ducking the first, doing the second and running for the hills.
To do them all would have made a loss, not a massive one because of the daft prices, but still a loss.
Price Movements
I used to do all my laying first thing in the morning. I would pick out what I thought would come a cropper the night before and then lay them at breakfast time.
I used to find it very frustrating that just minutes before a race that the price would come in dramatically before the off and the horse would win. By the same token I would pat myself on the back when I saw a price drift just as fast with the result being that the horse usually lost.
I thought I had discovered something and set about analysing the data on such events happening.
It didn’t have the effect on my performance that I hoped it would but thought the knowledge would come in useful one day.
In the distant past I use to see the way prices moved at the racecourse and it usually meant that something was afoot but I could never take advantage of it. As a normal punter I was never in a position to react fast enough to what was going on.
Being an armchair layer I now enjoy the benefits that holding fire when the market is telling us something.
Now I use the warning signal that is a crashing price more and more nowadays. The volume of the backing is the key and whether the layers come out to take on the interest.
Races that barely register can move up and down the odds with gay abandon with nothing really significant to be gleaned from it. However when you have a reasonably busy market and the prices start rapidly shifting you can be sure that there is something behind it.
Traders can distort this effect as they close positions but chances are the prices the bookies are quoting will be reflecting something like the exchanges are showing.
It may stop me from profiting from a very low priced favourite losing but more often than not it stops me laying a selection that has an even greater chance of winning than previously thought.
So to sum up I don’t lay too far in advance and I am very wary of price changes that occur in the moments before a race., especially prices coming in rapidly.
It is better to sit it out and be wrong than to go for it and find the decision was seriously wrong.
Common sense I know but when faced with a tempting price it oh so easy to go for the lay. I have done it on more than one occasion and lost.
Final Posting.
Today’s Diary is the final posting.
The reasons for ending this blog are more to do with my failure to achieve what I set out to do rather than a reaction to some of the fruity criticism that has been posted or mailed.
The idea for this blog wasn’t mine and initially I wasn’t really keen but after conversations with other layers I thought it could be helpful and possibly mildly entertaining.
I don’t think I really got there but hopefully some readers came away either slightly amused or dare I say a bit less worried about taking on the short priced favourites.
It has been good fun doing this and I don’t regret any of it.
Good luck to all of you.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Flip flop shuffle
11th November 2008
At first glance yesterday’s cards looked like it was going to hard going picking out anything worth going for.
2 all weather meets at Wolverhampton and Southwell combined with a very soggy Carlisle. Hardly the sort of situation to get the pulse over a steady 62 that’s for sure.
There was a high probability that the day would suffer from a lot of flip-flopping amongst the favourites simply because the market was going struggle to justify some of the prices.
The high point as far as I was concerned was to see how well TOT O’WHISKEY was going to perform in the 1:55 at Carlisle.
The filter came up with 6 selections for possible lays. Sadly I made an error and overrode it to leave out what I thought was an accident waiting to happen, but more of that later.
First to the starting grid was CUT AND THRUST in the 12:40 at Southwell. To have bagged this one would have been just dandy, before dinner and all that.
Sadly the price bobbed around to extent that the favourite flip-flopped and that was it as far as I was concerned.
To add insult to injury the situation was reversed and it became the favourite again but at the top of the range. My PC at went on a go slow and I missed out on the lay as it came in to about the 2.9 mark.
Needless to say CUT AND THRUST lost.
Fortune was to smile after all in the form of HAWK’S EYE in the 1:45 at Southwell. I put in at 2.10 and with a bit of patience it got matched.
The price drifted nicely before the off and my challenger GOOD HUMOURED came in.
The race was a 6f Maiden Stakes and HAWK’S EYE was never really in it. Whether it was the all weather surface or just a not in the mood type day, the result was a very poor 4th.
The day was finished as far as I was concerned and I could relax.
The miss of the day was PEUT ETRE SIVOLA in the 3:30 at Carlisle. I was kicking myself for dropping this one from the filter’s selections. I should have kept it in but with a wealth warning.
The rest of the selections had yet another mixed bag day.
TOT O’WHISKEY was up against FAASEL in the 1:55 and all seemed to be going to plan until FAASEL took the lead at the last and the finish was a real sprint with the lay selection taking the honours by a head.
The results in full were:
12:40 Southwell CUT AND THRUST Lost
1:45 Southwell HAWK’S EYE Lost
1:55 Carlisle FAASEL Won
2:35 Wolverhampton AZABU JUBAN Won
3:05 Wolverhampton SMALLJOHN Lost
It was another good day with the exit coming at the second attempt. To do them all would have brought in a small profit.
Taking out the over limit and flip flop favourites would have generated a much better profit.
Flip Flop Favourites
There is a reason for my dislike of flip flop favourites and it is not just based on an old wives tale.
By concentrating on the low priced favourite area it soon became apparent that this could be a fluid part of the market. I had never noticed it before because I always had avoided the favourites as I searched for laying fodder in the lower levels.
My first reaction when it first happened to me was that the market had seen sense and was now pricing the selection in a more reasonable fashion.
This was because that in my experience at the racecourse, a price of the favourite drifting and another coming in usually meant that something was afoot.
I was more than a bit surprised when my first flip-flop favourite romped home, I shouldn’t have been but I was.
So I just put it down to bad luck and considered it a rare event. Sadly this turned not to be the case and it happened more times than I care to recall.
Add to this that these selections are more than likely near the 3.0 mark and you have a costly situation to deal with.
The traders on the exchanges exacerbate the problem. They can push out a favourite to an extent where the placings flip-flop and then bring it back in again later as they close positions.
The upshot of all this positioning is that I walk away from such a situation. It can turn out to be a costly decision and a profitable lay missed but for me the risk is just not worth it.
At first glance yesterday’s cards looked like it was going to hard going picking out anything worth going for.
2 all weather meets at Wolverhampton and Southwell combined with a very soggy Carlisle. Hardly the sort of situation to get the pulse over a steady 62 that’s for sure.
There was a high probability that the day would suffer from a lot of flip-flopping amongst the favourites simply because the market was going struggle to justify some of the prices.
The high point as far as I was concerned was to see how well TOT O’WHISKEY was going to perform in the 1:55 at Carlisle.
The filter came up with 6 selections for possible lays. Sadly I made an error and overrode it to leave out what I thought was an accident waiting to happen, but more of that later.
First to the starting grid was CUT AND THRUST in the 12:40 at Southwell. To have bagged this one would have been just dandy, before dinner and all that.
Sadly the price bobbed around to extent that the favourite flip-flopped and that was it as far as I was concerned.
To add insult to injury the situation was reversed and it became the favourite again but at the top of the range. My PC at went on a go slow and I missed out on the lay as it came in to about the 2.9 mark.
Needless to say CUT AND THRUST lost.
Fortune was to smile after all in the form of HAWK’S EYE in the 1:45 at Southwell. I put in at 2.10 and with a bit of patience it got matched.
The price drifted nicely before the off and my challenger GOOD HUMOURED came in.
The race was a 6f Maiden Stakes and HAWK’S EYE was never really in it. Whether it was the all weather surface or just a not in the mood type day, the result was a very poor 4th.
The day was finished as far as I was concerned and I could relax.
The miss of the day was PEUT ETRE SIVOLA in the 3:30 at Carlisle. I was kicking myself for dropping this one from the filter’s selections. I should have kept it in but with a wealth warning.
The rest of the selections had yet another mixed bag day.
TOT O’WHISKEY was up against FAASEL in the 1:55 and all seemed to be going to plan until FAASEL took the lead at the last and the finish was a real sprint with the lay selection taking the honours by a head.
The results in full were:
12:40 Southwell CUT AND THRUST Lost
1:45 Southwell HAWK’S EYE Lost
1:55 Carlisle FAASEL Won
2:35 Wolverhampton AZABU JUBAN Won
3:05 Wolverhampton SMALLJOHN Lost
It was another good day with the exit coming at the second attempt. To do them all would have brought in a small profit.
Taking out the over limit and flip flop favourites would have generated a much better profit.
Flip Flop Favourites
There is a reason for my dislike of flip flop favourites and it is not just based on an old wives tale.
By concentrating on the low priced favourite area it soon became apparent that this could be a fluid part of the market. I had never noticed it before because I always had avoided the favourites as I searched for laying fodder in the lower levels.
My first reaction when it first happened to me was that the market had seen sense and was now pricing the selection in a more reasonable fashion.
This was because that in my experience at the racecourse, a price of the favourite drifting and another coming in usually meant that something was afoot.
I was more than a bit surprised when my first flip-flop favourite romped home, I shouldn’t have been but I was.
So I just put it down to bad luck and considered it a rare event. Sadly this turned not to be the case and it happened more times than I care to recall.
Add to this that these selections are more than likely near the 3.0 mark and you have a costly situation to deal with.
The traders on the exchanges exacerbate the problem. They can push out a favourite to an extent where the placings flip-flop and then bring it back in again later as they close positions.
The upshot of all this positioning is that I walk away from such a situation. It can turn out to be a costly decision and a profitable lay missed but for me the risk is just not worth it.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Health Warning about the Wealth Warning
10th November 2008
It was wet, it was windy and yesterday the weather was pretty vicious as well.
I had thought it was just going to be a fairly average Sunday, the exception being that we had to attend another firework party. The wind was so strong that the rockets took off and immediately flew sideways, that made for some entertaining manoeuvring by the chap with the lighter.
The racing was nothing in particular and Market Rasen had been abandoned to boot.
The filter put up 5 selections for possible laying and 2 of them were weak to say the least. Following a chat with a friend about one of them I decided to keep it in but felt that I needed to point out that it was iffy.
An email from a reader suggested a rating system to highlight where I thought the best opportunities were. I thought yesterday would be an ideal starting place and hence the addition of the * rating next the selection’s name.
The * denotes a selection that I feel should be looked at and layed if so inclined but comes with a warning that the market sees it as the obvious winner.
Unfortunately I think I should have made reference to the Wealth warning in the blog as a number of visitors have written to me and made their feelings rather clear when they layed the 2 very low odds favourites PANDORAMA and GIORGIO QUERCUS. These both romped home in their respective events.
As I said in my replies to those readers, the event of yesterday will not stop me from including such low priced favourites in the My Markets section but the * warning will be present as and when I see a danger over and above the normal threats.
The first selection for me was at Limerick. WATERLOO CHATEAU was running in the 12:45. I put in at 2.8 and after a short while it was matched.
The race was a 2m Maiden Hurdle and the selection was well beaten, coming in 3rd but a long way behind.
I was finished for the session and prepared for another pyrotechnic extravaganza. Credit crunch or not, hot dog makers have done well around here this year that’s for sure.
The remaining selections experienced what is becoming a recurring theme of a mixed bag.
The results in full were:
12:45 Limerick WATERLOO CHATEAU Lost
12:55 Navan PANDORAMA Won
1:10 Hereford GIORGIO QUERCUS Won
1:25 Navan FISHER BRIDGE Lost
3:25 Navan ARAN CONCERTO Won
I managed to escape the double hit in the second and third races by exiting on the first. If I had done them all it would have produced a loss. If the selections marked with the * were avoided, a small profit would have been made.
The Open
Its nearly here and already the place is beginning to gear up for next weekend.
I am talking about the Open at Prestbury Park, Cheltenham.
Personally I think this meeting is better than the Gold Cup, the Lord forgive me for saying such a thing, because of the atmosphere.
This 3-day festival attracts the hardcore race goer. There are still those doing the “corporate” but nowhere near as many as you get for the March Festival.
So you will have to forgive me if I refer back to this meeting during the week. The Wife has agreed to me going for the full 3 days and I am counting the hours.
It was wet, it was windy and yesterday the weather was pretty vicious as well.
I had thought it was just going to be a fairly average Sunday, the exception being that we had to attend another firework party. The wind was so strong that the rockets took off and immediately flew sideways, that made for some entertaining manoeuvring by the chap with the lighter.
The racing was nothing in particular and Market Rasen had been abandoned to boot.
The filter put up 5 selections for possible laying and 2 of them were weak to say the least. Following a chat with a friend about one of them I decided to keep it in but felt that I needed to point out that it was iffy.
An email from a reader suggested a rating system to highlight where I thought the best opportunities were. I thought yesterday would be an ideal starting place and hence the addition of the * rating next the selection’s name.
The * denotes a selection that I feel should be looked at and layed if so inclined but comes with a warning that the market sees it as the obvious winner.
Unfortunately I think I should have made reference to the Wealth warning in the blog as a number of visitors have written to me and made their feelings rather clear when they layed the 2 very low odds favourites PANDORAMA and GIORGIO QUERCUS. These both romped home in their respective events.
As I said in my replies to those readers, the event of yesterday will not stop me from including such low priced favourites in the My Markets section but the * warning will be present as and when I see a danger over and above the normal threats.
The first selection for me was at Limerick. WATERLOO CHATEAU was running in the 12:45. I put in at 2.8 and after a short while it was matched.
The race was a 2m Maiden Hurdle and the selection was well beaten, coming in 3rd but a long way behind.
I was finished for the session and prepared for another pyrotechnic extravaganza. Credit crunch or not, hot dog makers have done well around here this year that’s for sure.
The remaining selections experienced what is becoming a recurring theme of a mixed bag.
The results in full were:
12:45 Limerick WATERLOO CHATEAU Lost
12:55 Navan PANDORAMA Won
1:10 Hereford GIORGIO QUERCUS Won
1:25 Navan FISHER BRIDGE Lost
3:25 Navan ARAN CONCERTO Won
I managed to escape the double hit in the second and third races by exiting on the first. If I had done them all it would have produced a loss. If the selections marked with the * were avoided, a small profit would have been made.
The Open
Its nearly here and already the place is beginning to gear up for next weekend.
I am talking about the Open at Prestbury Park, Cheltenham.
Personally I think this meeting is better than the Gold Cup, the Lord forgive me for saying such a thing, because of the atmosphere.
This 3-day festival attracts the hardcore race goer. There are still those doing the “corporate” but nowhere near as many as you get for the March Festival.
So you will have to forgive me if I refer back to this meeting during the week. The Wife has agreed to me going for the full 3 days and I am counting the hours.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Bangers without the bottle
9th November 2008
I used to enjoy Bonfire night and it wasn’t all that long ago either. The smell of the fireworks and getting absolutely blathered while stood around freezing on a cold autumn night was really good fun.
You could say it is just a case of getting older but I think it was the lack of alcohol last night that did it for me. There were only half as many fireworks for a start or was that the lack of double vision.
It was the first sober Bonfire party I have been to for nearly 30 years and somehow it just wasn’t the same.
However, the same couldn’t be said for yesterday’s laying. Not as many meetings as we have come to expect for a Saturday and I only managed to see 2 races due to preparations for the party, but I can report it was at least a profitable day.
The filter churned out 5 selections for possible laying but I was disappointed that one race in particular failed the test that turned out to be a corking lay.
The first up for grabs was MERRYDOWN in the 12:00 at Kelso. I used to own shares in the company Merrydown when they rode the wave of the Two Dogs Alco pop craze, but that’s a different story.
I think I would have gone for the lay but was sent on a shopping trip to Morrisons for eggs and so missed the race completely.
As it happened that turned out to be a stroke of luck as MERRYDOWN won.
Next up was PAKINEO DES PICTONS in the 12:30. I was in 2 minds on what to do, as I actually wanted to wait for the lower priced FREE WORLD in the 1:20 at Sandown.
The second favourite, TEENAGE IDOL, coming in and the fact that I would be out until gone 3:00 on errands made up my mind.
I put in at 2.6 and after a bit of nibbling the lay was matched.
The race was a 2m 6 1/2f Novice Hurdle and the selection was never in it. It finished 4th but that flatters the reading as it was literally miles behind.
I was pleased that I wouldn’t have to wait until my last lay selection before having a bet and that another profit was in the bag.
The rest of the selections came in at what is becoming a familiar theme.
The miss of the day was TAKEROC in the 2:50 at Wincanton. This race had one of my favourite horses, KATCHIT, taking part but it had no chance of winning as it was carrying half a ton more than the rest.
TAKEROC was a weak lay but became a screaming lay but being away from the house I wasn’t going to risk it on the mobile.
The results in full were:
12:00 Kelso MERRYDOWN Won
12:30 Kelso PARKINEO DES PICTONS Lost
1:20 Sandown FREE WORLD Won
1:45 Naas BEAU MICHAEL Lost
3:35 Sandown SEYMAR LAD Lost
With the miss on the first, I only did the second. To do them all would have produced a small profit.
Staking Plans
There is a lot to be said for staking plans in respect to preserving the betting Bank and increasing wins as the bank grows.
I do not pretend to be an expert in this field because it really has become almost a science in its own right.
My own experience of staking plans began long before Betting Exchanges existed and I was backing to win rather than laying, but the principle remains the same.
The basic premise is that a percentage of the Bank is worked out and staked, that percentage is tickled up if you are winning and down again if losses are incurred.
The thinking being in moving the percentage upward is that if you enjoying a run then you should milk it. The opposite being the case if things turn against you.
I don’t use a rising staking plan, but I do agree with setting a level and sticking with it. There is always a temptation when a loss has been incurred to try and double up to get the loss back.
When I was laying any horses that I considered to be losers and avoided favourites, it was setting the stakes at a 5% maximum of the Bank that stopped me going under.
Now I concentrate on low priced favourites I have abandoned this limit but I stick rigidly to a fixed stake plan.
Staking plans can be a good tool, they can help maximise profits and limit losses. There is a good deal of information out there to be tapped but I would baulk at paying for it.
I used to enjoy Bonfire night and it wasn’t all that long ago either. The smell of the fireworks and getting absolutely blathered while stood around freezing on a cold autumn night was really good fun.
You could say it is just a case of getting older but I think it was the lack of alcohol last night that did it for me. There were only half as many fireworks for a start or was that the lack of double vision.
It was the first sober Bonfire party I have been to for nearly 30 years and somehow it just wasn’t the same.
However, the same couldn’t be said for yesterday’s laying. Not as many meetings as we have come to expect for a Saturday and I only managed to see 2 races due to preparations for the party, but I can report it was at least a profitable day.
The filter churned out 5 selections for possible laying but I was disappointed that one race in particular failed the test that turned out to be a corking lay.
The first up for grabs was MERRYDOWN in the 12:00 at Kelso. I used to own shares in the company Merrydown when they rode the wave of the Two Dogs Alco pop craze, but that’s a different story.
I think I would have gone for the lay but was sent on a shopping trip to Morrisons for eggs and so missed the race completely.
As it happened that turned out to be a stroke of luck as MERRYDOWN won.
Next up was PAKINEO DES PICTONS in the 12:30. I was in 2 minds on what to do, as I actually wanted to wait for the lower priced FREE WORLD in the 1:20 at Sandown.
The second favourite, TEENAGE IDOL, coming in and the fact that I would be out until gone 3:00 on errands made up my mind.
I put in at 2.6 and after a bit of nibbling the lay was matched.
The race was a 2m 6 1/2f Novice Hurdle and the selection was never in it. It finished 4th but that flatters the reading as it was literally miles behind.
I was pleased that I wouldn’t have to wait until my last lay selection before having a bet and that another profit was in the bag.
The rest of the selections came in at what is becoming a familiar theme.
The miss of the day was TAKEROC in the 2:50 at Wincanton. This race had one of my favourite horses, KATCHIT, taking part but it had no chance of winning as it was carrying half a ton more than the rest.
TAKEROC was a weak lay but became a screaming lay but being away from the house I wasn’t going to risk it on the mobile.
The results in full were:
12:00 Kelso MERRYDOWN Won
12:30 Kelso PARKINEO DES PICTONS Lost
1:20 Sandown FREE WORLD Won
1:45 Naas BEAU MICHAEL Lost
3:35 Sandown SEYMAR LAD Lost
With the miss on the first, I only did the second. To do them all would have produced a small profit.
Staking Plans
There is a lot to be said for staking plans in respect to preserving the betting Bank and increasing wins as the bank grows.
I do not pretend to be an expert in this field because it really has become almost a science in its own right.
My own experience of staking plans began long before Betting Exchanges existed and I was backing to win rather than laying, but the principle remains the same.
The basic premise is that a percentage of the Bank is worked out and staked, that percentage is tickled up if you are winning and down again if losses are incurred.
The thinking being in moving the percentage upward is that if you enjoying a run then you should milk it. The opposite being the case if things turn against you.
I don’t use a rising staking plan, but I do agree with setting a level and sticking with it. There is always a temptation when a loss has been incurred to try and double up to get the loss back.
When I was laying any horses that I considered to be losers and avoided favourites, it was setting the stakes at a 5% maximum of the Bank that stopped me going under.
Now I concentrate on low priced favourites I have abandoned this limit but I stick rigidly to a fixed stake plan.
Staking plans can be a good tool, they can help maximise profits and limit losses. There is a good deal of information out there to be tapped but I would baulk at paying for it.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Dream start, shame about the finish
8th November 2008
I can report another good day enjoyed on the laying front yesterday though not exactly a clear round. There were a good number of low priced favourites on offer but the Hexham contingent failed to get past the first run of the filter.
The filter actually fired out 5 lay possibles with only 1 that I felt iffy about, purely due to a good jockey astride a new horse.
First out of the hat was the Nicholls trained EARTH DREAM in the 1:10 at Fontwell. I couldn’t for the life of me think why it was priced so low but it drifted so much that a lay was out of the question.
It promptly lost and came in 4th.
The next up was again at Fontwell in the shape of OWLESBURY DREAM in the 1:40. The price was in and out like a fiddler’s elbow. I put in at 2.5 and got partially matched, it drifted way out and then came back for another bite and took the rest of my lay.
The race was a 2m-4f Beginners Chase and it was not a good race for my selection. It caught the first fence badly and it was really over with from then. The field was well spread out and OWLESBURY DREAM came in a long way back in 4th.
I could consider it a day and watch events unfold as I rushed to beat the usual Friday afternoon deadline and the courier always comes too early.
The rest of the selections were a 2 for 1 and I was pleased to have finished when I did.
The one I wasn’t keen on was Tony McCoy riding KERADA in the 4:10. The trainer has a habit of banging these one’s in and I think I need to tighten the filter to stop such selections getting through without stopping legitimate lays.
The miss of the day was BOLLIN FELIX in the 3:30 at Musselburgh. It failed on the last run of the filter and though easy with hindsight, I think it should have been included as a possible. It went on to lose by coming in 3rd. Ho hum.
The results in full were:
1:10 Fontwell EARTH DREAM Lost
1:40 Fontwell OWLESBURY DREAM Lost
2:30 Musselburgh KIWI MOON Won
2:40 Fontwell IRIS’S PRINCE Lost
4:10 Fontwell KERADA Won
A fairly early exit produced the profit but if all had been done a profit would have been had but at a much reduced level.
My Markets Evening Meetings
As from Wednesday 12th November I will be adding evening meetings to the My Markets section. I quite like watching these events but have found that in the past they haven’t exactly been a happy hunting ground for laying.
I like a challenge though and will be up for pitting the filter against these all weather affairs as and when they are held.
I will update this section at around 5:00pm before the meetings begin.
Chasing Losses
I think we all know the feeling; that horrible realisation that the lay bet has just gone wrong and you are now down on the day.
This is the situation that has caused me to foul up even more and compound a loss and increase it dramatically as I have tried to put things right.
It is the same instinct that kicks in when a loss is made by backing a losing horse at the races or in the bookies. The obvious difference with laying is the multiplication effect with that horse layed at 4.0 has just hit you for 3 times what could have been won.
The fortunate side with laying is that in the back of your mind you can reassure yourself that the situation is reversible. The odds are in fact in your favour the trick is to carefully work your way out of the minefield you have just wandered into.
Unfortunately it is easy to try and recoup a loss incurred by trying to get back in the market and lay something quick without taking the normal careful steps that should be followed.
This is something I am guilty of doing on many occasions when the sinking stomach feeling has got the better of me.
It sadly leads to increased losses and a greater feeling of panic; I know I have been there.
When this happens I ask myself a simple question.
Do I carry on with the selections put forward by the filter or call it a bad day and pull out there, take the loss on the chin and wait for tomorrow?
In the past I would have carried on regardless and layed each and every selection until it came good and a profit had been banked or more often than not, incurred a bigger loss.
I now take the view that it is better to either walk away with the loss or try and identify a selection that can at least bring me back to square for the day. If I can’t or I have lost confidence, then I walk away.
Painful experience has taught me that chasing a loss is a nigh on guaranteed way to put money in the pockets of the backers. It took me a frustratingly long time to work this simple thing out that making money is more about not losing as winning.
I can report another good day enjoyed on the laying front yesterday though not exactly a clear round. There were a good number of low priced favourites on offer but the Hexham contingent failed to get past the first run of the filter.
The filter actually fired out 5 lay possibles with only 1 that I felt iffy about, purely due to a good jockey astride a new horse.
First out of the hat was the Nicholls trained EARTH DREAM in the 1:10 at Fontwell. I couldn’t for the life of me think why it was priced so low but it drifted so much that a lay was out of the question.
It promptly lost and came in 4th.
The next up was again at Fontwell in the shape of OWLESBURY DREAM in the 1:40. The price was in and out like a fiddler’s elbow. I put in at 2.5 and got partially matched, it drifted way out and then came back for another bite and took the rest of my lay.
The race was a 2m-4f Beginners Chase and it was not a good race for my selection. It caught the first fence badly and it was really over with from then. The field was well spread out and OWLESBURY DREAM came in a long way back in 4th.
I could consider it a day and watch events unfold as I rushed to beat the usual Friday afternoon deadline and the courier always comes too early.
The rest of the selections were a 2 for 1 and I was pleased to have finished when I did.
The one I wasn’t keen on was Tony McCoy riding KERADA in the 4:10. The trainer has a habit of banging these one’s in and I think I need to tighten the filter to stop such selections getting through without stopping legitimate lays.
The miss of the day was BOLLIN FELIX in the 3:30 at Musselburgh. It failed on the last run of the filter and though easy with hindsight, I think it should have been included as a possible. It went on to lose by coming in 3rd. Ho hum.
The results in full were:
1:10 Fontwell EARTH DREAM Lost
1:40 Fontwell OWLESBURY DREAM Lost
2:30 Musselburgh KIWI MOON Won
2:40 Fontwell IRIS’S PRINCE Lost
4:10 Fontwell KERADA Won
A fairly early exit produced the profit but if all had been done a profit would have been had but at a much reduced level.
My Markets Evening Meetings
As from Wednesday 12th November I will be adding evening meetings to the My Markets section. I quite like watching these events but have found that in the past they haven’t exactly been a happy hunting ground for laying.
I like a challenge though and will be up for pitting the filter against these all weather affairs as and when they are held.
I will update this section at around 5:00pm before the meetings begin.
Chasing Losses
I think we all know the feeling; that horrible realisation that the lay bet has just gone wrong and you are now down on the day.
This is the situation that has caused me to foul up even more and compound a loss and increase it dramatically as I have tried to put things right.
It is the same instinct that kicks in when a loss is made by backing a losing horse at the races or in the bookies. The obvious difference with laying is the multiplication effect with that horse layed at 4.0 has just hit you for 3 times what could have been won.
The fortunate side with laying is that in the back of your mind you can reassure yourself that the situation is reversible. The odds are in fact in your favour the trick is to carefully work your way out of the minefield you have just wandered into.
Unfortunately it is easy to try and recoup a loss incurred by trying to get back in the market and lay something quick without taking the normal careful steps that should be followed.
This is something I am guilty of doing on many occasions when the sinking stomach feeling has got the better of me.
It sadly leads to increased losses and a greater feeling of panic; I know I have been there.
When this happens I ask myself a simple question.
Do I carry on with the selections put forward by the filter or call it a bad day and pull out there, take the loss on the chin and wait for tomorrow?
In the past I would have carried on regardless and layed each and every selection until it came good and a profit had been banked or more often than not, incurred a bigger loss.
I now take the view that it is better to either walk away with the loss or try and identify a selection that can at least bring me back to square for the day. If I can’t or I have lost confidence, then I walk away.
Painful experience has taught me that chasing a loss is a nigh on guaranteed way to put money in the pockets of the backers. It took me a frustratingly long time to work this simple thing out that making money is more about not losing as winning.
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